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Monday, 26 March 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday ordered the expulsion of 60 Russians from the United States and closed the Russian consulate in Seattle over a nerve agent attack earlier this month in Britain, senior U.S. officials said.
The order includes 12 Russian intelligence officers from Russia's mission to the United Nations headquarters in New York and reflects concerns that Russian intelligence activities have been increasingly aggressive, senior U.S. administration officials told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump expels 60 Russians, closes Seattle consulate after UK chemical attack: officials

Denmark's central bank may be forced into the rare position of raising interest rates independently of any rate move by the European Central Bank, analysts said, if the ECB phases out its bond-buying program as expected.
Denmark's Nationalbank does not adjust its rates in response to inflation, but to keep the value of Denmark's currency, the crown, within a narrow range linked to the value of the euro. Consequently, it usually moves in tandem with the ECB.
But phasing out bond purchases would mean the ECB will shift its policy to focus on interest rates, which is likely to strengthen the euro.
Except for a few months in 2014, the Nationalbank has kept its key rate in negative territory since mid-2012. It raised its certificate of deposit rate to minus 0.65 percent from 0.75 percent in an independent move in January 2016, still well below ECB's minus 0.40 percent rate.
"We believe the Nationalbank would like to normalize the interest rate spread and that the gradual tightening from the ECB gives room to start turning around the very negative interest rates we have in Denmark," Handelsbanken chief economist Jes Asmussen said.
Sydbank and Handelsbanken both expect an independent rate increase of 10 basis points in the fourth quarter this year. Jyske Bank also forecasts an independent rate hike but not until the second half of 2019.
Danske Bank, Nordea and Capital Economics said they do not expect an independent rate hike from the Nationalbank.
They emphasized that the crown has remained on the strong side of its central parity to the euro with no purchases from the Nationalbank for almost 11 months, even though ECB's winding down of its bond purchases has already been priced into the market.

Denmark may raise rates independently of ECB this year, analysts say

 U.S. stock index futures jumped more than 1 percent on Monday after a report that the United States and China had started trade negotiations, cooling fears about a trade war between the two countries.
The Wall Street Journal reported late on Sunday that Beijing and Washington had started quiet negotiations to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports last week.
By 7:02 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis (1YMc1) were up 281 points, S&P 500 e-minis (ESc1) rose 32.5 points and Nasdaq 100 e-minis (NQc1) gained 99.5 points.
Fears of a global trade war, faster rise in U.S. interest rates and a slump in Facebook (O:FB) shares had sent the main U.S. indexes to their worst weekly declines since Jan. 2016.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is down 3.2 percent for the year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has slid 4.2 percent. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) held on to a 1.3 percent gain.
Facebook lost $75 billion in stock market value last week, following the outcry over its handling of users' data. Facebook shares were up marginally in premarket trading.
Microsoft (O:MSFT) rose nearly 3 percent after Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) hiked its price target on the stock by $20 to $130, saying the company could hit $1 trillion in market value with growing public adoption of the cloud and improving margins.
Intel (O:INTC) gained more than 2 percent after brokerage Raymond James raised the stock to "market perform".
Federal Reserve's New York chief William Dudley and his Cleveland counterpart, Loretta Mester, are scheduled to speak later in the day. Both of them are voters on the rate-setting committee this year.

Stock futures jump on report of U.S.-China trade talks

Friday, 23 March 2018

USD/JPY possible entry

Trade Alert

Wednesday, 21 March 2018

EUR/AUD possible entry

Trade Alert


EUR/USD now looks to FOMC
The pair keeps the erratic performance so far this week although well into the familiar range between 1.2155 and 1.2555. Anyone of these levels could be tested in the very near term depending on the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting.
In the meantime, spot keeps challenging the short-term support line off 2018 lows (January 9, 1.1916), which has been doing well containing the selling impetus so far.
On the USD-universe, the buck has receded from recent tops in the 90.45/50 band, while yields of the key US 10-year reference stays so far sidelined in the boundaries of the 2.90% mark.
Later in the session, consensus among traders points to a ‘hawkish hike’ today by the Federal Reserve, although the bulk of the attention should be on the revised outlook and the ‘dots plot’.
Other than the Fed gathering, February’s Existing Home Sales are due along with the EIA weekly report.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.24% at 1.2270 and a breakout of 1.2414 (high Mar.14) would target 1.2448 (high Mar.8) en route to 1.2557 (2018 high Feb.16). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.2241 (low Mar.21) seconded by 1.2206 (low Feb.9) and finally 1.2165 (low Jan.18).

EUR/USD testing daily highs near 1.2270 ahead of FOMC

The dollar remained steady ahead of Federal Reserve new head Jerome Powell’s news conference on Wednesday, from which investors expect a rate hike this month and will find cues whether there will be three or four rate hikes this year.
The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies last stood at 89.89 at 11:07pm ET (03:07 GMT), down 0.13%. The dollar extended last year’s slide into 2018, but is likely to find support as the FOMC meeting is expected to reaffirm its monetary tightening policy.
While the Fed is poised to raise interest rates this week, most Asian central banks are unlikely the follow suit, according to reports. China and Japan see little reason for rate hikes, and the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated that the Bank does not intend to change its policy.
The USD/JPY pair shed 0.07% to 106.47. The greenback has weakened against the yen in 2018 despite expectation of three or even four rate hikes in the U.S. and the commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
BOJ’s deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya’s remarks garnered some attention on Wednesday as he said the BOJ has not ruled out the possibility of adjusting the yield curve when asked if the BOJ could adjust rates before inflation reached the 2% target. Meanwhile, the Bank’s governor Haruhiko Kuroda said policy normalisation is far away.
The AUD/USD pair traded at 0.7691, up 0.09%. The Aussie picked up a little after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes. The central bank remained cautious about a stronger Aussie hampering inflationary efforts, but was optimistic about the GDP growth beating expectation in 2018.
Elsewhere, The People’s Bank of China set the fix rate of yuan against the dollar at 6.3396 versus the previous day’s 6.3396. The USD/CNY pair eased 0.07% to 6.3293.
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unveil up to $60 billion in import duties on Chinese products by Friday, according to reports. Investors keep an eye on the U.S.-China relations to see if the move would spark a trade war.

Forex – Dollar Steady Ahead of Fed Decision


A hush settled over financial markets on Wednesday as investors counted down to a likely hike in U.S. interest rates and guidance on how many more to expect this year, while trade war fears kept export nations' currencies on edge.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.5 percent after a run of losses, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street.
Chinese shares were a bit more buoyant with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (HSI) gaining 1.2 percent as real estate firms posted stellar profits.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 (ESc1) inched up 0.1 percent, while FTSE futures (FFIc1) were off a fraction.
Markets are convinced the Federal Reserve will announce a quarter point hike at 1800 GMT, but are less sure if it will signal three or four for the year as a whole.
"A significant weighting toward four hikes this year may well cause both equity and bond markets to sell off," Jonathan Sheridan, analyst at FIIG Securities in Sydney, said.
"The concerns here are that the Fed overshoots with raising rates into a faltering economy," Sheridan added.
"If this opinion takes hold then we may well see falling longer term rates and a flatter yield curve, and it would also be negative for equities as it increases the chances of a recession."
The Fed has raised rates five times since it began tightening policy in late 2015. Yet the dollar has not really responded, ending 2017 down about 10 percent against a basket of currencies. (DXY)
"We remind readers that every single FOMC rate hike this cycle has been a 'dovish hike' and the USD has declined on the day(s) post the rise," Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a note to clients.
On Wednesday, the dollar index held near three-week highs around at 90.267 (DXY). Against the Japanese yen , the greenback hovered near a one-week top at 106.46.
(GRAPHIC: Developed market currencies against the Dollar - http://reut.rs/2FYAg0X)
TRADE WAR FEARS
Another major overhang for financial markets is the specter of a global trade war.
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to unveil up to $60 billion in import duties on Chinese goods by Friday. The move comes after Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum earlier this month.
Investors are worried Trump's actions could escalate into a full-blown trade war if China and other countries retaliate with similar or harsher measures, threatening global growth.
To add to these concerns, a meeting of finance ministers and central banks of the world's 20 biggest economies this week failed to diffuse the threat.
The so-called G20 agreed only to stand by an ambiguous declaration on trade from 2017 and "recognized" the need for more "dialogue and actions".
The currencies of export-heavy nations such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars were on the defensive after being knocked down to multi-month lows.
The Aussie fell to a three-month trough of $0.7679 overnight while the kiwi dollar hit the lowest since early January. The Canadian dollar held at $1.3029 from Monday's low of $1.3124, a level not seen since mid-2017.
Equity analysts have also turned increasingly downbeat.
"Cracks in the bull case are starting to emerge," said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC), citing the bank's March fund manager survey.
"The threat of a trade war returns to the top of the list of tail risks most commonly cited by investors, followed by inflation and a slowdown in global growth," he added.
"Investors have yet to act on these fears, however, as rates and earnings are keeping the bulls bullish."
Among major commodities, oil prices were lifted by tensions in the Middle East and healthy demand. [O/R]
U.S. crude (CLc1) rose 15 cents to $63.69 per barrel. Brent (LCOc1) gained 16 cents to $67.58.
Spot gold added 0.2 percent to $1,313.31 an ounce .

Caution the watchword as Fed ponders rate pace

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Tuesday, 20 March 2018



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Here are the top five things you need to know in financial markets on Tuesday, March 20:
1. Premarket Action Suggests More Pain For Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
Facebook shares looked set for another down day, with the stock falling 1.3% in premarket trade to $170.30.
Shares of the world's most popular social media company plunged 6.8% on Monday, its worst one-day decline in at least three years, after investors learned Cambridge Analytica, a firm that helped President Donald Trump’s 2016 election campaign, had collected and used without permission data from the accounts of millions of users.
That sparked concerns over the collection and use of data, especially related to individuals, and prompted speculation it will face more government scrutiny going forward.
Indeed, U.S. lawmakers are calling for more regulation of Facebook. Democratic U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar wrote on Twitter that it is clear that companies like Facebook cannot “police themselves.” She added that Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg should speak before the Senate Judiciary committee.
2. Global Stocks Struggle After Tech Selloff
Global stock markets continued their struggle for a second day, as investors weighed the latest headwinds to technology companies and braced for the first rate hike of the year from the Federal Reserve.
Persistent worries about a global trade war also added to the cautious tone in markets.
Most Asian shares ended lower, as investors digested the overnight pullback on Wall Street, but China managed to eke out some gains.
Japan's benchmark index underperformed regional peers for the third day in a row as the country’s ongoing political drama tested investor nerves. The Nikkei lost 0.6% after polls suggested a massive drop in public support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe over his handling of a festering cronyism scandal.
In Europe, the continent's major bourses traded mostly lower in mid-morning trade, with sectors moving in different directions.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index, the region's broadest measure of share prices, edged down 0.2%, as technology stocks moved lower on fears of stronger regulations.
Meanwhile, on Wall Street, U.S. stock futures pushed lower, an indication that equities may be ready to extend Monday's sharp pullback. Dow futures slumped 65 points, or 0.25%, while S&P 500 futures lost 4 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futuresdropped 35 points, or roughly 0.5%.
On Monday, each of the major indexes finished in the red, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses, falling 1.8%, or 137 points, while the Dow lost 335 points, or 1.4%, and the S&P 500 lost 39 points, or 1.4%.
3. Federal Reserve Kicks Off Policy Meeting
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today, with a decision due Wednesday afternoon.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike its fed funds target rate range by a quarter point at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's first meeting as chairman, which would put it in a range between 1.50%-1.75%. Powell will meet with the press after the meeting.
The U.S. central bank will also release new forecasts for economic growth and interest rates, known as the "dot-plot", as investors look for fresh clues on the pace of monetary policy tightening for the remainder of the year.
In December, the Fed forecast three rate hikes for 2018, but an upbeat assessment of the economy by Powell late last month fueled speculation that a fourth rate hike could be on the cards.
The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields were little changed.
The dollar index, which gauges the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, held steady at 89.50 in early trade, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.863%.
Tuesday's calendar features no major economic data releases.
4. Oil Prices Rebound As Middle East Tensions Persist
Oil prices pushed higher, supported by continued tensions in the Middle East, where strains between Saudi Arabia and Iran remained in focus.
U.S. WTI crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $62.63 per barrel, while Brentfutures added 52 cents, or 0.8%, to $66.58 per barrel.
Still, surging U.S. crude oil production, which has risen by more than a fifth since mid-2016, to 10.38 million barrels per day, has been looming over oil markets.
The American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (2130GMT), amid forecasts for an oil-stock gain of around 3.1 million barrels.
5. UK Inflation Slows To 7-Month Low
British inflation was weaker than expected in February as the impact of the 2016 Brexit vote faded from the figures, easing some of the squeeze on consumers who have seen their pay rise more slowly than prices.
The decline took the rate from 3.0% to 2.7%, the weakest increase since July of last year. The figure was slightly below the median forecast of 2.8%.
However, the weaker than expected increase in prices is unlikely to cause a rethink by the Bank of England which has said interest rates are likely to need to rise more than it previously thought.
The pound remained was a shade higher following the data release, with GBP/USDrising to 1.4040, not far from Monday’s one-month highs of 1.4087.
The pound rallied on Monday after the UK and the European Union reached an agreement on a 21-month post-Brexit transition deal

Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday

EUR/USD Possible Entry

New Trade Alert

Monday, 19 March 2018

U.S. Futures were lower on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump unleashed a tweet storm over the weekend, sparking another round of political uncertainty.
The S&P 500 futures fell 14 points or 0.54% to 2,741.25 as of 6:42 AM ET (10:42 GMT) while Dow futures decreased 131 points or 0.52% to 24,834.0. Meanwhile tech heavy Nasdaq 100 futures was down 98 and a half points or 1.40% to 6,945.50
On Sunday morning, Trump accused Special Counsel Robert Mueller of hiring “hardened Democrats” to investigate a ties between the 2016 presidential campaign and Russia.
Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans? Another Dem recently added...does anyone think this is fair? And yet, there is NO COLLUSION!

In another tweet, Trump dismissed the idea that former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe had incriminating documents. McCabe was fired on Friday, just two days before his retirement.

Spent very little time with Andrew McCabe, but he never took notes when he was with me. I don’t believe he made memos except to help his own agenda, probably at a later date. Same with lying James Comey. Can we call them Fake Memos?
Investors have been on edge lately over changing trade policy in Washington and a flurry of Trump administration departures. Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports early in the month, which have risen trade war uncertainty. He also fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson last week and Gary Cohn resigned from his role as director of the National Economic Council after disagreements over the tariffs.
Markets are also looking ahead to Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve delivers its interest rate decision. Traders are expecting an interest rate increase as Fed chair Jerome Powell gives his first press conference.
Nokia (HE:NOKIA) Corp ADR (NYSE:NOK) was among the biggest gainers in pre-market trading, rising 0.52% while Barclays (LON:BARC) PLC ADR (NYSE:BCS) surged 3.66% and Unilever PLC (NYSE:UL) inched up 0.17%.
Elsewhere social media sites took a hit amid data privacy concerns. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) slumped 3.75% amid news that political research firm Cambridge Analytica collected data on 50 million Facebook users without their knowledge whileTwitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) fell 2.67%.
In Europe stocks were down. Germany’s DAX fell 116 points or 0.94% while in France the CAC 40 decreased 35 points or 0.67% and in London, the FTSE 100 was down 91 points or 1.28%. Meanwhile the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 lost 25 points or 0.74% while Spain’s IBEX 35 slumped 64 points or 0.66%.
In commodities, gold futures inched down 0.05% to $1,311.60 a troy ounce while crude oil futures fell 0.34% to $62.20 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, decreased 0.11% to 89.70.

Stocks- U.S. Futures Point to Lower Opening Bell After Trump Tweet Storm

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